Don’t buy the hype!

Arian Foster has a pulled hammy.    Prior to the injury, all experts claimed him the consensus #1 overall pick.   Although he ranks #2 still on average draft lists, I have seen him go as low as #6.

Peyton Manning had bulging disc surgery months ago.    For multiple seasons he has been a Top 3 QB drafted and usually in the first round, occasionally in second.   This year, experts rank him #6 at QB behind Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and even Rivers.   That is late 3rd round projection.

Chris Johnson is holding out.   Last years consensus #1 overall, he finished the season 3rd in fantasy points at the RB position.   Despite QB controversy.   Injury to their #1 WR.   He finished where he did.   Like Foster, he has slipped behind Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice in some drafts.

So, what am I driving at?   The big networks (ESPN, CBS, NFL Network, Fox, etc) are trying to fill-up the demand for fantasy football information.  Hell, for football information.  So, they report each step in progress of these players.   They play “what if he is not available?” scenarios on the TV so they can fill programming, blog space, and article requirements.

The constant barrage of this information can mislead you.   The experts in your league (you know who they are, they are the ones that live and breathe the league….actually, it is probably you since you are reading this remote blog) will overreact and take Ray Rice or even LeSean McCoy before CJ or Foster.   That is crazy talk.

You ever get frustrated that you spend weeks analyzing fantasy articles and news, have a good draft, and then lose week 1 to the guy that bought a magazine an hour before coming to the draft?    Perhaps there is a reason.

The primary reason is luck.   Face it, the more informed you are, the better chance you have.   But, the magazine guy did not hear all the hype you did.   So he took Foster with his first pick like the magazine said.   Again, near the end of the 2nd round, Peyton Manning was on the board to this guy’s surprise.   So now he took Peyton.   In the 3rd round, on a quick swing back to him, he selects Peyton Hillis.   We all know he overdrafted Hillis, but 2010 was not that long ago, and what if Hillis is more like mid-2010 than late-2010?   All of a sudden, magazine guy’s roster is solid.    Sure, later on, he will draft Randy Moss in the 6th round, but the core is there.

Frustrated by a week #1 loss to magazine guy?   I sure would be.   Actually, I sure have been.

Don’t Buy The HYPE!

Come week #1, Foster, Peyton, and CJ will be in the lineup.  Book it.

But, having your draft on September 6 instead of August 20, will ensure everything is settled.  But if you have that August 20 draft (any August draft actually), you can take advantage.   Watch CJ slip to you #5, get Manning in the 3rd round.    Suddenly, you are geared up for a great season.

Again, Don’t Buy The Hype!

Even if, for some odd reason, one of these guys (or others like them), don’t get their situations settled and miss a few weeks, your team will still be solid because you do research.   You are more likely to hit gold late in the draft.   These guys missing a week or three won’t kill you, it will hurt, but not kill you.   In the long run, you are more likely to be successful, than fail by ignoring the hype.

 

 

 

 

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